New Approach to Mitigating Earthquakes in Campi Flegrei

#1 · 06/05/2025, 16:46

Quote from yanderlko on 06/05/2025, 16:46
Since 2022, southern Italy has experienced an escalating series of earthquakes in the Campi Flegrei region, a volcanic area where the ground undergoes slow vertical movements. As discussions continue regarding evacuation and disaster response strategies, researchers have proposed a potential solution: managing water runoff and lowering groundwater levels to reduce fluid pressure within the geothermal reservoir, potentially preventing the cyclic unrest.

A team of Stanford scientists, through subsurface imaging and laboratory experiments, discovered that pressure from water and vapor in the reservoir beneath Campi Flegrei can trigger earthquakes when the caprock, or sealing layer, becomes compromised. Their study, published in Science Advances, suggests that the overpressured reservoir led to seismic activity and land deformation in both the early 1980s and the last 15 years, identifying the underlying mechanism behind these events.

The findings challenge the widely accepted theory that magma or gases rising to shallower depths cause the earthquakes. Instead, the research emphasizes how the rate of water accumulation in the reservoir affects land deformation and the elevation changes of the area.

Tiziana Vanorio, the senior author of the study, proposed that controlling surface runoff and water flow, or extracting fluids through wells, could mitigate the pressure buildup that contributes to seismic activity.

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The researchers analyzed subsurface imaging and earthquake patterns from two recent periods of unrest (1982–1984 and 2011–2024), finding consistent characteristics such as land uplift and burst-like shaking. They suspect that steam-driven explosions are responsible for the rumbling sounds reported by residents, caused when liquid water rapidly turns to steam during fracturing induced by earthquakes.

This research is particularly personal for Vanorio, who grew up in Pozzuoli and had to evacuate during the 1982–1984 unrest. She views this work as not just a scientific pursuit, but a way to prevent future destruction and improve the lives of those living in the region. The study highlights the potential to manage volcanic unrest rather than merely monitor it.

The Campi Flegrei caldera, which spans 8 miles, has experienced significant eruptions in the past, but it also experiences gradual uplift and subsidence, sometimes without volcanic eruptions. Over the years, the area has subsided by about 3 feet, and seismic activity has continued to disrupt life. The new study suggests that while magma and its gases may sometimes contribute to seismicity, the pressure from water accumulation in the geothermal reservoir plays a major role in triggering earthquakes.

Vanorio stressed that it is not rainfall itself that leads to seismicity, but the pressure created by the gradual accumulation of water in a sealed reservoir. As rainfall patterns have become more erratic over the past two decades, monitoring groundwater levels and controlling runoff are essential to minimizing seismic risks in the region.

Since 2022, southern Italy has experienced an escalating series of earthquakes in the Campi Flegrei region, a volcanic area where the ground undergoes slow vertical movements. As discussions continue regarding evacuation and disaster response strategies, researchers have proposed a potential solution: managing water runoff and lowering groundwater levels to reduce fluid pressure within the geothermal reservoir, potentially preventing the cyclic unrest.

A team of Stanford scientists, through subsurface imaging and laboratory experiments, discovered that pressure from water and vapor in the reservoir beneath Campi Flegrei can trigger earthquakes when the caprock, or sealing layer, becomes compromised. Their study, published in Science Advances, suggests that the overpressured reservoir led to seismic activity and land deformation in both the early 1980s and the last 15 years, identifying the underlying mechanism behind these events.

The findings challenge the widely accepted theory that magma or gases rising to shallower depths cause the earthquakes. Instead, the research emphasizes how the rate of water accumulation in the reservoir affects land deformation and the elevation changes of the area.

Tiziana Vanorio, the senior author of the study, proposed that controlling surface runoff and water flow, or extracting fluids through wells, could mitigate the pressure buildup that contributes to seismic activity.

The researchers analyzed subsurface imaging and earthquake patterns from two recent periods of unrest (1982–1984 and 2011–2024), finding consistent characteristics such as land uplift and burst-like shaking. They suspect that steam-driven explosions are responsible for the rumbling sounds reported by residents, caused when liquid water rapidly turns to steam during fracturing induced by earthquakes.

This research is particularly personal for Vanorio, who grew up in Pozzuoli and had to evacuate during the 1982–1984 unrest. She views this work as not just a scientific pursuit, but a way to prevent future destruction and improve the lives of those living in the region. The study highlights the potential to manage volcanic unrest rather than merely monitor it.

The Campi Flegrei caldera, which spans 8 miles, has experienced significant eruptions in the past, but it also experiences gradual uplift and subsidence, sometimes without volcanic eruptions. Over the years, the area has subsided by about 3 feet, and seismic activity has continued to disrupt life. The new study suggests that while magma and its gases may sometimes contribute to seismicity, the pressure from water accumulation in the geothermal reservoir plays a major role in triggering earthquakes.

Vanorio stressed that it is not rainfall itself that leads to seismicity, but the pressure created by the gradual accumulation of water in a sealed reservoir. As rainfall patterns have become more erratic over the past two decades, monitoring groundwater levels and controlling runoff are essential to minimizing seismic risks in the region.